我们预计商品需求下降的速度会快于供应，因此因素4应该超过因素2，所以在其他条件相同的情况下我们应该预期价格水平会下降。在“初学者经济指标指南”中，我们看到通货膨胀指标（如GDP的隐性价格平减指数）是顺周期同步经济指标，因此通货膨胀率在繁荣时期较高而在经济衰退期间较低。上述信息表明，繁荣时期的通货膨胀率应该高于爆发率，但为什么通货膨胀率在衰退中仍然是积极的？答案是其他一切都不平等。货币供应量不断扩大，因此经济具有由因子1给出的持续通胀压力。美联储有一张表格列出M1，M2和M3的货币供应量。经济衰退？萧条？我们看到，在第二次世界大战以来最严重的经济衰退期间，从1973年11月到1975年3月，实际国内生产总值下降了4.9％。除非货币供应量在此期间迅速上升，经季节性调整后的M2增长16.5％，经季节性调整的M3增长24.4％，否则这将导致通货紧缩。来自Economagic的数据显示，在这次严重衰退期间，消费物价指数上涨14.68％。通货膨胀率高的衰退时期被称为滞胀，这一概念以米尔顿弗里德曼着称。虽然经济衰退期间的通货膨胀率普遍较低，但通过货币供应的增长，我们仍然可以经历高通胀率。所以这里的关键点是，虽然通货膨胀率在繁荣期间上升而在经济衰退期间下降，但由于货币供应持续增加，通常不会低于零。此外，可能存在消费者心理相关因素，这些因素可以防止价格在经济衰退期间下降 – 更具体地说，如果客户觉得客户在将价格提高到原来的水平时会感到不安，他们可能不愿意降价。时间点。
We expect commodity demand to decline faster than supply, so factor 4 should exceed factor 2, so we should expect price levels to fall under otherwise identical conditions. In the “Guidelines for Beginners’ Economic Indicators”, we see that inflation indicators (such as the implicit price deflator of GDP) are pro-cyclical economic indicators, so inflation is higher during the boom period and lower during the recession. . The above information indicates that the inflation rate during the boom period should be higher than the explosion rate, but why is the inflation rate still positive during the recession? The answer is that everything else is unequal. The money supply continues to expand, so the economy has sustained inflationary pressures given by factor 1. The Fed has a table listing the money supply for M1, M2 and M3. economic recession? depression? We saw that during the worst economic downturn since the Second World War, from November 1973 to March 1975, real GDP fell by 4.9%. Unless the money supply rises rapidly during this period, the seasonally adjusted M2 increases by 16.5% and the seasonally adjusted M3 increases by 24.4%, otherwise this will lead to deflation. Data from Economagic showed that during this severe recession, the consumer price index rose by 14.68%. The recession period with a high inflation rate is called stagflation, a concept known as Milton Friedman. Although the inflation rate during the recession is generally low, we can still experience high inflation rates through the growth of the money supply. So the key point here is that although the inflation rate rises during the boom period and falls during the recession, it is usually not below zero as the money supply continues to increase. In addition, there may be consumer psychosocial factors that prevent prices from falling during a recession – more specifically, customers feel unwilling to cut prices if they feel they are uncomfortable when raising prices to their original levels. Time point.